PatsBlog: A Patriots Blog

Well, it’s do or die time.  If the Patriots lose on Sunday, they will be eliminated from playoff contention.  A win keeps them alive and in a need of a little help to make the playoffs.

In their first meting, the Patriots soundly defeated the Bills 20-10.  And although the score didn’t really suggest it, the Patriots dominated this meeting.

While on paper, the Patriots should easily handle the Bills.  However, the Bills have nothing to play for and that could make them dangerous, as they will be looking to play spoiler.

Players to Watch – Bills

Fred Jackson, RB #22 – Jackson has taken on a big role in supplementing Marshawn Lynch this season.  He has played great football, is fast, elusive, and will see his touches throughout the day.

Reggie Corner, DB, #27 – Corner the corner had four deflected passes last week against Denver.  The little 5-9 corner may be matched against Welker in the slot, so he will be interesting to watch.

Players to Watch – Patriots

Randy Moss, WR, #81 – I usually don’t put the star players up here, but for some reason I’m sensing a big week from Randy Moss.  Don’t ask me why, it’s just one of those things.

Gary Guyton, LB, #59 – Guyton has been a starter since both Pierre Woods and Tedy Bruschi went down… that was, until he got injured.  After struggling at outside linebacker, it will be interesting to see if Woods can get back in the groove of things defensively.

Key to the Game

Jump out on top quickly – The Bills have been poor at scoring in the first quarter, while the Patriots have been pretty good in that category.  The key will be to continue this trend, so that the Bills can never get any hope, and the Patriots can put their foot on the Bills’ neck.

Prediction: Patriots 34 Bills 17

I see the Patriots closing out the season in pretty dominating fashion.  While the Bills may make things pretty interesting, I think the Patriots have too much to play for to lose this game.

Another week, another blowout.  At this point in the season, I don’t think any team wants to play the Patriots.  The offense you knew and loved from 2007 is back, although the philosophy is different.

Game Notes

• The Cardinal’s effort was pathetic.  It was unprofessional, lackluster… just rediculous.  They are a playoff team, and need to start playing like it.   Teams like the Cardinals make me believe that the NFL should re-organize and expand the divisions.  While the current system is very organized and clean-cut, it is letting too many bad teams make the playoffs.  Going back to three divisions per conference following an expansion may not be a bad idea.
• Everybody on every facet of the game played a fantastic game, which is why I definitely won’t be doing a player stock report this week.  On offense, Matt Cassel, Sammy Morris, Lamont Jordan, Wes Welker all played terrific games.  On defense, Junior Seau, Jarvis Green, Mike Vrabel, Brandon Meriweather, and Jonathan Wilhite all played well.   On special teams, Gostkowski, Slater, Washington, Redd, Welker, and Ventrone all did their thing.
• I was surprised the Patriots were able to work so effectively and as much as they did through the air.  Cassel had a very good game, throwing for over 350 and three touchdowns.  A big reason for the was the play of Jabar Gaffney, who without a doubt had his best game of the season.  However, the real reason for the Patriots success throwing the ball may have been how they came out at deteriorated the Cardinals with the run.  For snap #1, Sammy Morris pounded the ball down the Cardinals throats.  After a little Sammy Morris, the Patriots turned to the bruiser, Lamont Jordan (who, if the Patriots make the playoffs, will be a VERY KEY contributor).
• The kickoff coverage unit was rediculous.  After giving up the return touchdown lasty week, they played one hell of a game.  I felt like Steve Breaston was stopped inside the 20 on every single kickoff.  And boy, were there a lot of kickoffs.
• Very solid game from the Patriots defense.  The Pats success defensively started with the pass rush.  Jarvis Green, Mike Wright, Mike Vrabel, and Rosevelt Colvin all had big games rushing the passer.  However, the biggest pass rush came from Brandon Meriweather, who forced a stip-sack on Matt Leinart on a safety blitz.  In my opinion, he is developing into a real star.  Speaking of stars, how about Junior Seau?  Although he is turning 40, he still plays with the heart of a rookie, as was exemplified during the game on Sunday.

Game Balls

Offense: Lamont Jordan, RB: Jordan pounded the ball 20 times for 78 yards and two touchdowns in the Pats’ 47-7 victory.  Jordan showed the ability to carry the load conistently, as his north-south running really wore down the Cardinal’s defense and allowed the Patriots to have the success they did through the air.

Defense: Jarvis Green, DE: Jarvis Green easily had his best game of the year.  With Ty Warren resting most of the game, Green led the Patriots’ pass rush and was a big key in stopping the Cardinals passing attack.

Look Ahead:

In the final week of the regular season, the Patriots will go up against the 7-8 Buffalo Bills, with their playoff lives on the line.  If they lose, they’re out.  Period.  However, with the Seahawks topping the Jets Sunday afternoon, things got interesting.  The Patriots will need to win and have the Dolphins lose to win the division.  That means Patriots fans will have to root for the Jets to beat the Dolphins, which should be interesting.  The Patriots could also make the playoffs as the wildcard if they don’t win the division, which means the Jaguars would have to beat the Ravens.

After the Baltimore Ravens defeated the Dallas Cowboys last night, the playoff picture got a lot thicker for the Patriots.  Now, the Patriots need either the Jets or Dolphins to lose today, or the Ravens to lose to the Jaguars next week.

However, the bottom line is, the Patriots must win to stay alive (except in a scenario where we lose today win next week and have Baltimore lose next week and we win by strength of victory…  Lets just make it simple: the Patriots need to win today.

Things might not be as hard as originally projected either.  The Arizona Cardinals are abysmal on the road, and may even be worse in wintery conditions, which we will likely see this sunday.  Plus, they may be without one of their top targets – Anquan Boldin.

Both teams may be forced to run the ball because of the conditions, and lucky for the Patriots, Cardinals are ranked last in the league in that category.

Key to the Game

Control the Game on the Ground – A key for the Patriots will be controlling the Cardinals on the ground.  This year, the Patriots have been able to win games by using the run (ex. Denver), and that may be something they try to do today.

Players to Watch

Cardinals: Steve Breaston – The Cardinals third receiver may go over 1000 yards this year.  Kidding aside, he could be considered the Cards’ “secret weapon,” as he brings a nice combination of hands and route running.

Prediction: Patriots 24 Cardinals 21

Gostkowski boots through the winner as time expires in a close game dominated by running an defense.

Note: Sorry for releasing this article really late, I’ll be on the ball next week.

The Patriots jumped out quickly against the Raiders and never let their foot off the gas pedal.  About 10 minutes into the game, I realized that the Raiders weren’t going to stand a chance, as they really just came out flat.  Big win for the Patriots, as they clinched their eigth straight winning season.  The only thing that really matters, however, is the playoff picture.  Currently, the Patriots still sit at eigth due to tiebreakers.  However, they are tied for the division lead, as well as the last wildcard spot.

Game Notes:

• First, full props to Matt Cassel.  With everything he went through during the week, it was really amazing for him to come out and deliver the performance that included four touchdowns.
• Mike Vrabel is really back.  He had a tremendous game and was all over the field.  He recorded five total tackles, as well as a critical strip-sack of Jamarcus Russell.
• Jonathan Wilhite also played really well in his second career start.  He played every snap and played shutdown defense, making an interception as well as two pass deflections.  He really does look to have a bright future, possibly brighter than fellow rookie Terrence Wheatley.
• The running backs; Lamont Jordan, Kevin Faulk, and Sammy Morris all ran very well.  Jordan had 97 on twelve, Morris 117 on 14, and Faulk 47 on six.  All three have their distinctive running styles.  Jordan is pure north-south, Morris is well balanced, and Faulk is a nice change of pace.  Keep in mind, however, that Faulk is actually the starting running back for the Patriots.  He plays the majority of the snaps at running back, although he doesn’t carry the ball all that much, he does a great job in protection as well as catching the ball out of the backfield.
• Great kick return by Ellis Hobbs.  He’s been a great weapon in that area all season long.  However, I believe people sometimes overlook his value on defense, where I believe he is having a career year.
• All three backup defensive linemen – Jarvis Green, Mike Wright, Le Kevin Smith, all had good games, showing how solid the Patriots rotation is.
• Kelley Washington has been hurt much of the year, but his presence was felt on the opening kickoff, when he made an excellent special teams tackle that set the tone for the entire game.

Game Balls:

Offense: Matt Cassel – Cassel took the ball off the field and I think that really showed how much he had to earn this victory.  With the passing of his father on his mind, Cassel was still able to get to work and played a remarkable game.  We wish him and his family the best.

Defense: Mike Vrabel – Ever since Adalius Thomas went down, the Patriots have asked Mike Vrabel to take on more of a pass-rushing role.  While Vrabel had struggled much of the season, he has really turned things around and may have had his best game this past Sunday.

Look Ahead:

In week 16, the Patriots travel back home to take on the 8-6 Arizona Cardinals.  The Cards have really been abismal away from home, so the Patriots should be able to win this game, in what may very well be a shootout.  Also, the Patriots will be playing for their playoff lives, while the Cards can’t play for much, as they are likely stuck with the #4 seed, unless Minnesota collapses.

Just win, Baby.

With only three weeks left in the NFL regular season, the Patriots will stay on the west coast with their playoff hopes on the line.  And while the Raiders would initially look like an easy win, they have shown flashes this season (look at defeats of Jets and Broncos for proof), and will be looking to play spoiler for the Patriots.

Really, this is a playoff game.  If the Pats lose, their chances at making the playoffs will be all but eliminated.  This, in a way, is the Patriots’ second playoff game, out of a possible total of eight.

Key Injuries – Patriots

Tedy Bruschi – Out

Pierre Woods – Out (UPDATE: Placed on Injured Reserve)

James Sanders – Doubtful

Vince Redd – Questionable

Ellis Hobbs – Questionable

Ty Warren – Questionable

Kelley Washington – Questionable

Analysis: This week, the Patriots look pretty banged up.  Tedy Bruschi was sent home with a left knee injury that isn’t too serious, but may very well end his season.  Pierre Woods was placed on injured reserve.  He was slated to start at the outside linebacker position, which leaves Gary Guyton and Rosevelt Colvin the only healthy options at that spot, with Vince Redd also a possibility to see time there.  With James Sanders likely out, look for Antwain Spann to start, with cornerback Lewis Sanders rotating in. Ellis Hobbs, Ty Warren, and Kelley Washington are all likely game-time decisions Sunday.  Hobbs would be a major loss for the Pats.  He has started all season, and played very well as the #1 corner.  If Hobbs is out, Deltha O’Neal will likely be re-inserted into the starting lineup.  Ty Warren looks closer to playing, but if he misses the game, look for Le Kevin Smith and Mike Wright to rotate in at the left defensive end position.  Both played well last week, but Warren is one of the best players on the defense, so it will still be a tough spot to replace.

Key Injuries – Raiders

Jake Grove – Probable

Jamarcus Russell – Probable

Ricky Brown – Doubtful

Analysis: The Raiders look pretty healthy this week.  Linebacker Ricky Brown has been out for a while, so it looks like he will miss yet another game.  Jamarcus Russell will be active, but it will be interesting to see if his injury nags him during the game.  Jake Grove hasn’t played in a while, but will likely be active.

Keys to the Game – Patriots

Jump Ahead Early – Last week, the Patriots found themselves in a big deficit early against the Seahawks.  With the loud crowd, it will be important that the Patriots get off to a quick start and take control of the game, not letting the Raiders get any hope.

Stuff the Run – The Raiders have been dreadful in the passing game, and will likely try and attack the Patriots through the ground with Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush (my 2007 draft binky).  If the Patriots can stop the Raiders’ ground attack, that may make the Raiders one dimensional, and the secondary will get their channces.

Look Deep – The Patriots have a very good secondary, and play a lot of man to man.  However, their best corner, Nnamdi Asomugha likely won’t be covering Randy Moss, which may give Moss osme opportunities down field.

Players to Watch – Patriots

Matt Cassel, QB, #16 – It will be interesting to watch how Cassel repsonds to the passing of his father.  If he’s rattled, or if he finds motivation.  Here of course, at PatriotsBlog.net, we wish Matt Cassel and his family the best at this time.

Rosevelt Colvin, OLB, #95 – Will likely either start, or get very significant playing time.  With another week to practice, will he be back to his old form?  The Patriots will rely on him for pass rush.

Le Kevin Smith, DE, #90 – When Vince Wilfork went down last week, Mike Wright shifted to nose tackle, while Le Kevin Smith moved in at defensive end.  He quietly had a very good game, recording three tackles, as well as altering several plays.  With Warren and Wilfork still struggling with injuries, Smith may get another chance.

Players to Watch – Raiders

Nnamdi Asomugha, CB, #21 – Big, strong, physical, fast, smart – Nnamdi Asomugha has, in my mind, established himself as the best cornerback in the NFL.  Look to see if the Raiders move Asomugha over from his regular side to cover Randy Moss.

Johnnie Lee Higgins, WR/KR, #15 – An excellent punt and kick returner, Higgins will be someone to watch in not only special teams, but on offense, where he has seen a bigger role as of late.

Justin Fargas, RB, #25 – The under-utilized runner for the Oakland Raiders, Fargas will be a key player in the Raiders’ offensive game plan this week.

Prediction: Patriots 30 Raiders 17

I think the Patriots will come out strong in this one, taking control early by spreading the ball out on offense.  The Patriots will move one step closer to the playoffs in this one.

Never say never.

Heading into today’s game against Seattle, I was fully expecting a blowout victory.  But things never work out like you think they will.  Down by eight in the fourth quarter, Matt Cassel led the Patriots on two scoring drives, taking the lead on a Sammy Morris one yard touchdown run on fourth and goal.

As ugly as the game was, not to mention the game winning drive, the Patriots were able to pull through with a W, and that’s all that matters at this point.  What may matter just as much was the result of another game.  The Jets lost to the 49ers 24-14, putting them at 8-5 on the season.  However, the Dolphins also won, putting them at 8-5 as well.  I will have a full breakdown of the playoff picture tomorrow.

Game Notes

• The defense was sloppy all day.  They let up too many third downs, and missed too many tackles.  They really looked slow.
• Richard Seymour continues his dominance this year, recovering the game sealing fumble, and working off double teams all day.
• With Vince Wilfork also injured and Ty Warren inactive, the Patriots moved Mike Wright to nose tackle, and putting LeKevin Smith at defensive end.  Both players played pretty well, with Wright making a big rush on Seahawk’s quarterback Seneca Wallace in the 2nd half.
• The new (or old, depending on your perspective) additions for the Patriots, Rosevelt Colvin and Junior Seau, didn’t do that much.  Seau looked good on run support, picking up one tackle (although he made a nice tackle on a play that was negated, do to an offensive holding).  I didn’t really pick out Colvin for anything great.
• Injuries are a serious problem on the defensive side of the ball.  Tedy Bruschi went down with a left knee injury in the first half, and his status is uncertain.  Vince Wilfork was also injured in the 1st half, and did not return.  James Sanders was benched, and I’m not sure if it was injury related.
• Offensively, we were pretty inconsistent.  But they did pull through when it counted, converting third down after third down on the final drive.
• Matt Cassel seemed to struggle today.  He looked inconsistent and wasn’t very accurate.  Still, he got the job done, and was able to pull through in the clutch.
• Today was the first game we had Lamont Jordan back from a calf injury.  He only had a few carries, but I’d like to see him more involved in coming games.
• Wes Welker is the man.  Enough said.  He really kept the offense going, finishing with 12 grabs for 134 yards, and was the go-to guy on that final drive.
• Jabar Gaffney had a nice catch on the drive that made it 14-13 in the third.  While he has had a couple of crushing drops this year, he has looked pretty good overall, and is learning to take advantage of the consistent single coverage he is getting.
• How much better has the pass protection been since Stephen Neal returned from injury?

Game Balls

Offense: Wes Welker – Welker had a phenomonal day, finishing with 12 catches for 134 yards, coming up with a pair of key first downs on that final drive.  If it hadn’t been for Welker, the Patriots offense wouldn’t have gotten very far.

Defense: Mike Vrabel – For me, this wasn’t a hard decision.  He had a really effective game, tying for the team lead in tackles.  He had a couple of nice pass rushes, as well as run stops near the line.  Since A.D. went down, he has played much better.

Look Ahead

Next Sunday, the Patriots will go up against the Oakland Raiders (3-10).  While this should be an easy win, the way the Seahawks played us today, you really just don’t know.  Again, the Pats are practically in a win or go home situation.  Every game is a playoff game.

Courtesy NFL.com

Wow, the offense is really back, and the last two weeks have proved that.  Yesterday’s game enormously important in terms of the playoff picture, and the Patriots were able to pull trough despite not capitalizing on early opportunities to take control of the game.

Game Notes

• Matt Cassel, wow.  At the end of the preseason I was one of the few supporters of Cassel, saying he could do a decent job as a starter. However, I never saw this coming (except maybe after the kool-aid I was drinking following the 2005 regular season finale.  Matt Cassel not only looks legit, he looks elite.  The past two weeks he has been shattering Patriots records, and the offense is back in full force.  Now it’s up to the defense to step up, they no longer have excuses (except for a list of about one thousand injuries… but hey, we got it done in ‘03).
• Benny Green-Ellis looked real good on that last drive.  I don’t know why he doesn’t get the ball consistently.
• Randy Moss was once again amazing, as was Wes Welker.  It’s about time people start talking about these two as the premiere receiving group in the NFL.  I would talk about Gaffney as well, as he’s made some nice plays the last two weeks… but he dropped another easy one… and I need some time to regroup.
• Defensively, stellar play from Richard Seymour, but legendary play from Big Vince Wilfork.  He clogged the lanes all day, and has been dominant the last several weeks.  Big key in stopping the Wildcat.
• Mike Vrabel continues to show increased effectiveness, finally recording a sack.  Last year he was just so dominant, and I hope he can get back to what he was for the stretch run.
• Kevin Faulk is the man.  Period.
• It’s about time people stop trying to label Brandon Meriweather a bust.  He made his fourth interception today, and he really does look like a budding star, at least in my eyes.  Also, I don’t think safety will be a draft priority for the Pats, because we already have to very good starters.

Game Balls

OFFENSE: Matt Cassel – I think this decision really goes without saying.  See above.  However, there is one play that I want to point out.  Fourth and one, second quarter, the Patriots run a quick quarterback sneak.  However, Matt Cassel gains six yards on the play, plowing through defensive lineman, showing his true toughness.

DEFENSE: Brandon Meriweather – Tied for team lead in total tackles, and made the game sealing interception.  This was a toss-up between Meriweather, Wilfork, Seymour, and Vrabel.

A Look Ahead

Next week, the Patriots will battle the Pittsburgh Steelers, in what should be a very heated game.  While I would certainly say that the Patriots won’t be favored, a win would be huge for setting them up for a playoff berth.